2020 United States presidential election| All You Need to Know

 

The 2020 United States presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020. It will be the 59th quadrennial presidential election.

As part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.

New Jersey voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.

Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will vote on December 14, 2020, to either elect a new president and vice president or re-elect the incumbents Donald Trump and Mike Pence respectively.

The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

 

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for June 2, 2020. In April, they were moved to July 7 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.

On May 15, 2020, Governor Phil Murphy signed an executive order declaring that the primary election to become a primarily vote-by-mail election.

Democratic and Republican voters will automatically receive a vote-by-mail ballot while unaffiliated and inactive voters will get a vote-by-mail application.

Those who are unaffiliated voters must declare their party in the application and send in to their respective county board of elections in order to vote and receive their primary election ballot.

A limited number of polling stations in each county will be available on primary day for those who prefer to vote in person (including with provisional ballots if they're unable to obtain one) and for voters with disabilities.

 

Foreign interference

 

U.S. officials have accused China, Russia and Iran of trying to influence the 2020 United States elections.

On October 4, 2019, Microsoft announced that a group of hackers "Phosphorus" , linked to the Iranian government, had attempted to compromise e-mail accounts belonging to journalists, U.S. government officials and the campaign of a U.S. presidential candidate.

 The Voice of America reported in April 2020 that "Internet security researchers say there have already been signs that China-allied hackers have engaged in "spear-phishing" attacks on American political targets ahead of the 2020 vote.

 

Voting by mail

Voting by mail has become an increasingly common & familiar practice in the United States, with 25% of voters nationwide mailing their ballots in 2016 and 2018.

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has been predicted to cause a large increase in mail voting because of the possible danger of congregating at polling places.

For the 2020 election, a state-by-state analysis concluded that 76% of Americans are eligible to vote by mail in 2020, which is a record number.

The analysis predicted that 80 million ballots could be cast by mail in 2020 - more than double the number in 2016.

However, President Trump has repeatedly condemn mail voting, even though he himself votes by mail in Florida, a form of absentee voting. 

Party convention

Democratic National Convention 

The 2020 Democratic National Convention was originally scheduled to be on July 13–16 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, but was delayed to August 17–20 due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

On June 24, 2020, it was announced that the convention would be held in a mixed online-in person format, with most delegates attending remotely but a few still attending the physical convention site. 

On August 5, the in-person portion of the Convention was scaled down even further, with major speeches including Biden's being switched to a virtual format.

 

Republican National Convention 

 

The 2020 Republican National Convention took place from August 24–27 in Charlotte, North Carolina and various remote locations.

Originally, a 3-day convention was planned to be held in North Carolina, but due to North Carolina's demand that the convention follow COVID-19 social distancing rules, the speeches and celebrations were moved to Jacksonville, Florida. 

However, due to the worsening situation with regards to COVID-19 in Florida, the plans there were cancelled, and the convention was moved back to Charlotte in a scaled-down capacity.

 

Nominee

                             

                                               

Nominee	Donald Trump	Joe Biden
Party	Republican	Democratic
Home state	Florida	Delaware
Running mate	Mike Pence	Kamala Harris

 

Republican Party nomination

 

On January 25, 2019, the Republican National Committee unofficially endorsed Trump.

Former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld became Trump's first major challenger in the Republican primaries following an announcement on April 15, 2019.

In addition, businessman Rocky De La Fuente also entered the race, but was not widely recognized as a major candidate.

On September 8, 2019, former South Carolina governor and representative Mark Sanford officially announced that he would be another Republican primary challenger to Trump. He dropped out of the race 65 days later on November 12, 2019, after failing to gain support in Republican circles.

Former Illinois representative Joe Walsh launched a primary challenge on August 25, 2019, saying, "I'm going to do whatever I can. I don't want Trump to win. The country cannot afford to have him win. If I'm not successful, I'm not voting for him."

Walsh ended his presidential bid on February 7, 2020.  Walsh declared that "nobody can beat Trump in a Republican primary" because the Republican Party was now a craze of Trump. According to Walsh, Trump supporters had become "followers" who think that Trump "can do no wrong".

Trump won every race, and having won enough delegates to ensure his nomination at the convention, became the presumptive nominee on March 17, 2020. 

Weld suspended his campaign the next day.

 

Democratic Party nomination

 

In August 2018, the Democratic National Committee voted to disallow super delegates from voting on the first ballot of the nominating process, beginning with the 2020 election.

This required a candidate to win a majority of pledged delegates from the assorted primary elections in order to win the party's nomination. 

Overall, the 2020 primary field had 29 major candidates, breaking the record for the largest field under the modern presidential primary system previously set during the 2016 GOP primaries with 17 major candidates. 

 

Several female candidates entered the race, increasing the likelihood of the Democrats nominating a woman for the second time in a row.

 

Entering the Iowa caucuses on February 3, 2020, however, the field had decreased to 11 major candidates. Pete Buttigieg narrowly defeated Bernie Sanders in Iowa.

 

Then Sanders edged out Buttigieg in the February 11, New Hampshire primary. Following Michael Bennet, Deval Patrick, and Andrew Yang dropping out, Sanders won the Nevada caucuses on February 22. 

 

Joe Biden then won the South Carolina primary, causing Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer to abandon their campaigns.

Buttigieg and Klobuchar then immediately endorsed Biden.

 

After Super Tuesday, March 3, Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren quit the race, leaving three candidates left: Biden and Sanders, the main contenders, and Tulsi Gabbard, who remained in the race despite facing high-on insuperable odds. 

 

Gabbard then dropped out and endorsed Biden after the March 17, Arizona, Florida, and Illinois races.

 

On April 8, 2020, Sanders dropped out, reportedly after being convinced by former president Barack Obama, leaving Biden as the only major candidate remaining, and the presumptive nominee.

 

Biden then gained endorsements from Obama, Sanders and Warren.

 

By June 5, 2020, Biden had officially gained enough delegates to ensure his nomination at the convention, and proceeded to work with Sanders to develop a joint policy task force.

 

Senator Kamala Harris was announced as former vice president Joe Biden's running mate on August 11, 2020.

 

If elected and inaugurated, Harris would be the second person of color to be vice-president (after Herbert Hoover's vice president Charles Curtis), first woman, first African-American, and first Asian-American vice president of the United States.

 

She is the third female vice presidential running mate after Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 and Sarah Palin in 2008. She is the first person representing the Western United States to appear on the Democratic Party presidential ticket.

 

 

Demographic trends

 

The age group of what will then be people in the 18-to-45-year-old bracket is expected to represent just under 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020.

It is expected that more than 30 percent of eligible American voters will be nonwhite.

A bipartisan report indicates that changes in voter demographics since the 2016 election could impact the results of the 2020 election. 

African Americans, Hispanics, Asians, and other ethnic minorities, as well as "whites with a college degree", are expected to all increase their percentage of national eligible voters by 2020, while "whites without a college degree" will decrease. 

Generation Z, those born after 1996, will more than double to 10% of the eligible voters.

 

Other parties and independent candidates

 

Libertarian Party nomination

 

Jo Jorgensen, who was the running mate of author Harry Browne in 1996, received the Libertarian nomination at the national convention on May 23, 2020.  

She achieved ballot access in all 50 states and the District of Columbia on September 8, 2020, when her Rhode Island petition was verified by the Secretary of State.

Green Party nomination

 

Howie Hawkins became the presumptive nominee of the Green Party on June 21, 2020, and was officially nominated by the party on July 11, 2020. 

Hawkins has also been nominated by the Socialist Party USA, Solidarity, Socialist Alternative, and the Legal Marijuana Now Party. 

Hawkins has ballot access to 381 electoral votes as of August 25, 2020, with an additional 41 pending.

 

 

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic

 

 

Several events related to the 2020 presidential election have been altered or postponed due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. 

On March 10, following primary elections in six states, Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders cancelled their planned campaign night events and further in-person campaigning and campaign rallies.

On March 12, President Trump also stated his intent to postpone further campaign rallies.

The 11th Democratic debate was held on March 15 without an audience at the CNN studios in Washington, D.C.

Some presidential primary elections were severely disrupted by corona virus-related issues, including long lines at polling places, greatly increased requests for absentee ballots, and technology issues. 

The number of polling places was often greatly reduced due to a shortage of election workers able or willing to work during the pandemic.

Most states expanded or encouraged voting by mail as an alternative, but many voters complained that they never received the absentee ballots they had requested.

 

General Election Debates

On October 11, 2019, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced that three general election debates would be held in the fall of 2020.

The first is scheduled to take place on September 29, and is being co-hosted by Case Western Reserve University and the Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, Ohio. 

The debate was originally to be hosted at the University of Notre Dame in Notre Dame, Indiana, but the university decided against holding the debate as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The second is scheduled to take place on October 15 at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts in Miami.

The third is scheduled to take place on October 22 at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee. 

The second debate was initially set to be held at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan, but the university withdrew in June 2020, reportedly over concerns regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Additionally, one vice presidential debate is scheduled for October 7, 2020, at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.

 

Win prediction by states

 

 

This model combines the national prediction with polls and political-economic factors at the state level. We take into account that states that are similar are likely to move with each other.

 

Estimated electoral college votes

 This model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. The midpoint is the estimate of the electoral-college vote for each party on election day.

 

Right now, according to this model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college.